Fri, September 13, 2024
⇪图·colorhub.me
传闻多年的延迟退休政策，今天终于尘埃落定。2024年9月13日，全国人民代表大会常务委员会审议通过《关于实施渐进式延迟法定退休年龄的决定》。根据文件精神，最终三类人的退休年龄将会分别定格在63（男职工），58（女干部），53（普通女职工）。
我注意到这个政策文件的出发点是：适应我国人口发展新形势，充分开发利用人力资源。我理解最根本的原因还是我国已经进入老龄化社会，未来劳动力资源短缺，社会保障成本压力增加。这个政策的出台，确实是无奈之举，有两个问题值得思考：
一是目前经济形势总体下行，市场前景总体暗淡，看不到短期回暖的迹象。除了新媒体、IT与互联网、新能源与环境工程等行业外，其余各类行业企业经营举步维艰。在这个背景下，企事业单位选择保住基本盘，压缩规模，控制支出，留住熟练的、有经验的员工。因为老员工性价比高，能够创造的附加值也更多，这就导致年轻人工作不好找。2024年应届高校毕业生总人数1179万创造新高，就业率却低的离谱，很多人毕业即失业。在2025年开始的这个渐进式推进的退休政策过程中，两者的对冲将会带来矛盾的加剧，这是改革需要面对的阵痛。
二是对于人口与出生率，我们要尊重自然规律，少去或者不去人为的、政策性的干预。1949年建国初期，我国的人口总数为5.4亿人。面对百废待兴，劳动力短缺的窘境，50年代我们鼓励与奖励生育。到1982年计划生育政策被确定为基本国策，写入宪法。2021年开始全面放开计划生育政策，2024年全面开放“三胎”。中国国土面积960万平方公里，基于生态系统的理想负荷能力分析研究，我国的人口规模理想状态在7亿到10亿之间。希望经过未来的调整与发展，中国的人口总数和人口结构能够趋于合理，中国社会、经济的发展，能够为国民带来更多的福祉。
The policy of delaying retirement has been rumored for several years，which was finally settled today. On September 13, 2024, The NPC Standing Committee adopted the Decision on the Implementation of Gradual Delay of the Mandatory Retirement Age. According to the spirit of the document, the retirement age of the three categories of people will be set at 63(male workers), 58(female cadres), 53(ordinary female workers).
I noted that the starting point of the policy document is to adapt to the new situation of China’s population development, and fully develop and utilize human resources. I think that the most fundamental reason is that China has entered an aging society, with the shortage of labor resources in the future and the increasing pressure of social security costs. The introduction of this policy is indeed a desperate move, and there are two questions to consider.
Firstly, the current economic situation is on the overall decline, the market outlook is generally bleak, and there is no sign of short-term recovery. With the exception of the new media, IT and Internet, new energy and environmental engineering industies, enterprises in all other industries are struggling. In this context, enterprises and institutions choose to maintain their fundamentals, reduce their scale, control expenditures, and retain skilled and experienced employees. Because old employees are cost-effective and can create more added value, this makes it difficult for young people to find jobs. In 2024, the total number of fresh college graduates set a new high of 11.79 million, but the employment rate was extremely low. Many young men lost their jobs just after a graduation. In the gradual retirement policy process starting in 2025, the hedge between the two will increase the contradictions, which is the pain that the reform needs to face.
Secondly, for the population and birth rate, we should respect the laws of nature, with less or no artificial, policy-based intervention. In the beginning of the founding of the PRC in 1949, the total population was 540 million. We encouraged and rewarded childbirth in the 1950s, because of the shortage of labor. And in 1982, the family planning policy was recognized as a basic state policy and enshrined in the Consitution. In 2021, the family planning policy had been fully liberalized, and the "three children" policy had been fully opened in 2024. China covers an area of 9.6 million square kilometers. Based on the analysis and research of the ideal load capacity of the ecosystem, the ideal population size is between 0.7 billion and 1.0 billion people. We hope that through future adjustment and development, China’s total population and population structure will become more reasonable, and the development of China’s society and economy will bring more well-being to the people.
